Most sellers price their home by looking at what sold nearby last quarter. That is a reasonable start, but in a market that is moving, last quarter is old news. By the time a sale is recorded, the conditions that produced it may already have changed.

Signal one: time to first offer

We track how many days pass between a listing going live and the first written offer arriving. When that number starts creeping up across a neighborhood, buyers are getting more selective, and a home priced at last quarter’s level will sit.

Signal two: the second-viewing rate

A first viewing tells you the photos worked. A second viewing tells you the price might. We watch the share of first viewings that turn into a second visit, because it moves before offers do.

The first two weeks on the market are worth more than the next two months. Price for them.

Signal three: withdrawn listings

Homes withdrawn without selling rarely make headlines, but they are a clear sign of where the ceiling sits. When withdrawals cluster at a price point, we price just beneath it.